Every distribution business has its version of the holiday rush. The companies that thrive through peak season are the ones that started preparing 90 days out — not 90 hours out.
Forecasting With Imperfect Data
Pull order volume by week for the past two years and graph it. Build a peak forecast SKU by SKU for your top 20 items (which likely represent 60–70% of your volume): last year's peak week quantity, adjusted for account base changes, plus 10–15% buffer for demand upside. Order inventory against this forecast, not against intuition.
Pre-Built Standing Orders for Peak Season
One of the highest-leverage things you can do before peak season is work with your top 30 accounts to pre-build their peak standing orders. "Based on last year, you ordered about 15 cases of X and 8 cases of Y during Thanksgiving week. Want us to set that as your auto-order for those two weeks?" Most accounts will say yes. This locks in volume, reduces inbound order chaos during your busiest week, and positions you as a proactive partner.
Using Portal Data to Improve Next Year's Forecast
If you're running an ordering portal, every order from last year's peak season is a clean data record: which accounts ordered, which SKUs, what quantities, on what dates. Before your current peak season ends, pull that report and save it in a format you can actually use next year. The distributors who get progressively better at peak season management are not smarter — they are just more systematic about capturing and using the data they already have.